The read
In the October 27 report, managed money's net short in natural gas futures grew by 48,616 contracts to 205,464, equal to 12.1% of open interest. It sits at the 1st percentile of its three-year range (z-score -2.63), the short end, where it has now been for 5 reports. The net short is 72,615 larger than four weeks ago, and the prior week's growth was 30,692.
The change came mostly from new shorts. Managed money added 45,133 shorts, taking them to 405,209, and held 3,483 fewer longs, leaving 199,745. Open interest fell 1.9% to 1,698,133, so the short grew in a smaller market.
The prior report showed a net short of 156,848, or 9.1% of open interest. Measured against each market's own history, natural gas was the second largest change in this report, after platinum. The report counts positions as of Tuesday, October 27, and shows the position, not the reason for it.
Natural gas positioning
Natural Gas (Henry Hub): 205,464 contracts net short
Who moved
Managed money added shorts while other reportables covered.
Managed money's shorts rose by 45,133 to 405,209 while their longs fell by 3,483 to 199,745. Nearly all of the 48,616 net change came from new shorts, not from longs leaving.
Other reportables moved the other way. Their net short narrowed by 35,571 to 50,275, as they held 27,237 fewer shorts, leaving 120,535, and added 8,334 longs. Producers / merchants cut their net short by 9,465 to 3,629, mostly by holding 11,586 fewer shorts. Swap dealers' net long rose by 3,425 to 240,156.
These are balances within this futures market, not whole portfolios.
Who holds natural gas futures
Who holds Natural Gas (Henry Hub) futures?
What would change the read
Does the natural gas short keep growing?
The next report, for positions as of November 3, shows whether managed money's net short in natural gas stays at or above 205,464 or narrows. A net short larger than 205,464 would extend the growth for a third week. A net short back at or below the prior 156,848 would undo this week's move. The gross shorts, now 405,209, show whether any change comes from shorts or from longs.
The anchors
ES · CL · GC
S&P 500
Net short 399,879 contractsLeveraged funds held 31,585 fewer longs and 4,575 fewer shorts, so the net short grew by 27,010. Longs leaving, not new shorts, drove the change. It equals 20.2% of open interest and sits at the 27th percentile of its three-year range (z-score -0.74). The net short is 25,872 larger than four weeks ago.
WTI crude
Net long 99,771 contractsManaged money's net long shrank by 2,135 contracts: 5,587 fewer longs and 3,452 fewer shorts. It is 23,145 smaller than four weeks ago and sits at the 32nd percentile of its three-year range (z-score -0.31). Open interest rose 4.2%.
Gold
Net long 107,404 contractsManaged money's net long shrank by 1,281 contracts: 124 fewer longs and 1,157 more shorts. It is 17,014 smaller than four weeks ago and sits at the 22nd percentile of its three-year range (z-score -0.88).
Elsewhere
Four other positions worth a look.
Platinum shorts were added
Managed money's platinum net long fell by 4,743 to 1,872, 2.2% of open interest, as they added 4,382 shorts and held 361 fewer longs. It was the largest change in this report, measured against each market's own history, and sits at the 24th percentile of its three-year range (z-score -0.68). Open interest rose 15.8% to 85,244.
10-year note shorts grew
Leveraged funds' 10-year T-note net short grew by 120,051 to 2,227,275, 37.9% of open interest, with 58,808 more shorts and 61,243 fewer longs. The prior week's change was a narrowing of 98,713. It sits at the 17th percentile of its three-year range (z-score -1.07). Asset managers' net long rose by 74,748 to 3,000,164.
Corn longs left
Managed money's corn net long shrank by 90,314 to 55,943, 2.2% of open interest, as they held 43,392 fewer longs and added 46,922 shorts. It is 321,907 smaller than four weeks ago and sits at the 67th percentile of its three-year range (z-score +0.38).
A bitcoin short at the long end
Leveraged funds' CME bitcoin net short narrowed by 963 to 3,979 contracts, 19.1% of open interest. That net short sits at the 100th percentile of its three-year range (z-score +2.08), the long end, for 5 reports. A net short can sit at the long end of its range.
One week later
The Russell 2000 short stayed smaller, and the euro and natural gas shorts held the short end.
- Last week: would the Russell 2000 net short stay below 53,035, and would the euro and natural gas shorts stay at the short end of their ranges? All three did.
- The Russell 2000 short narrowed again. Leveraged funds' net short narrowed by 4,954 to 48,081, below last week's 53,035. It sits at the 58th percentile (z-score +0.25).
- The euro short grew again. Leveraged funds' net short grew by 2,734 to 71,574, from 68,840. It sits at the 1st percentile (z-score -2.53), the short end, for 5 reports.
- The natural gas short grew again. Managed money's net short grew by 48,616 to 205,464, from 156,848, and sits at the 1st percentile (z-score -2.63), the short end, for 5 reports.
- Next report: Whether the natural gas net short stays at or above 205,464 and at the short end of its range, and whether the 10-year note net short stays above 2,227,275.
Positioning reference
Where positioning sits in its 3-year range.
| Market | Net position | 3-year percentile (z-score) | At this end |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (CME) | Net short 3,979 (19.1% of open interest) | 100th (+2.08) | 5 reports |
| Natural Gas (Henry Hub) | Net short 205,464 (12.1% of open interest) | 1st (-2.63) | 5 reports |
| Euro FX | Net short 71,574 (8.2% of open interest) | 1st (-2.53) | 5 reports |
| Lean Hogs | Net short 47,109 (10.6% of open interest) | 1st (-1.91) | 22 reports |
| Sugar No. 11 | Net long 240,068 (16.1% of open interest) | 97th (+2.08) | 11 reports |
| Silver | Net long 2,902 (2.2% of open interest) | 4th (-1.54) | 4 reports |
| Swiss Franc | Net short 17,502 (12.9% of open interest) | 5th (-1.80) | New this week |
| Canadian Dollar | Net short 96,747 (26.8% of open interest) | 5th (-1.82) | 3 reports |