The read
In the October 13 report, leveraged funds' net short in euro futures grew by 23,740 contracts to 68,001, equal to 7.8% of open interest. It sits at the 1st percentile of its three-year range (z-score -2.54), the short end, for a third report running. The net short is 39,845 larger than four weeks ago.
Both legs moved. Leveraged funds held 15,346 fewer longs, at 120,021, and added 8,394 shorts, taking them to 188,022. Open interest rose only 0.5% to 874,541, so the move is a change in the mix of positions, not a surge in the size of the market.
The prior report showed a net short of 44,261, or 5.1% of open interest. It is the largest change in a currency market in this report, measured against each market's own history. The report counts positions as of Tuesday, October 13, and shows the position, not the reason for it.
Euro positioning
Euro FX: 68,001 contracts net short
Who moved
Leveraged funds changed both legs.
Leveraged funds' longs fell by 15,346 to 120,021 while their shorts rose by 8,394 to 188,022. About two thirds of the 23,740 net change came from longs leaving and one third from new shorts.
These are balances within this futures market, not whole portfolios.
Who holds euro futures
Who holds Euro FX futures?
What would change the read
Does the euro short keep growing?
The next report, for positions as of October 20, shows whether leveraged funds add to a net short of 68,001 or cut it. A fourth report at the short end would extend this episode. A net short smaller than 44,261 would undo the week's move, and a move off the short end of the range would end the episode.
The anchors
ES · CL · GC
S&P 500
Net short 410,518 contractsLeveraged funds added 6,538 longs and 1,147 shorts, so the net short narrowed by 5,391. It equals 21.1% of open interest and sits at the 22nd percentile of its three-year range (z-score -0.90). The net short is 98,687 smaller than four weeks ago.
WTI crude
Net long 102,765 contractsManaged money's net long shrank by 1,726 contracts: 3,081 fewer longs and 1,355 fewer shorts. It is 34,003 smaller than four weeks ago and sits at the 33rd percentile of its three-year range (z-score -0.28).
Gold
Net long 111,079 contractsManaged money's net long shrank by 3,741 contracts: 1,705 fewer longs and 2,036 more shorts. It is 25,981 smaller than four weeks ago and sits at the 25th percentile of its three-year range (z-score -0.80).
Elsewhere
Four other positions worth a look.
Natural gas shorts narrowed
Managed money's natural gas net short narrowed by 18,525 to 126,156, 7.2% of open interest, with 9,592 fewer shorts and 8,933 more longs. It sits at the 7th percentile of its three-year range (z-score -1.31), the short end, for a third report. Open interest fell 3.8%.
Mexican peso longs left
Leveraged funds' peso net long fell by 11,363 to 63,564, 22.8% of open interest, as they held 20,217 fewer longs and 8,854 fewer shorts. It sits at the 90th percentile (z-score +1.23), the long end of its range, and has been there for 12 reports. Open interest fell 4.0%.
Corn longs left the long end
Managed money's corn net long fell by 86,482 to 230,877, 9.2% of open interest, with 62,919 fewer longs and 23,563 more shorts. It left the long end of its range after 8 reports and now sits at the 86th percentile (z-score +1.25).
The Dow crossed to net long
Leveraged funds' Dow Jones net position moved from a net short of 1,894 to a net long of 4,327, a change of 6,221, as they held 5,269 fewer shorts and 952 more longs. It sits at the 75th percentile (z-score +0.65).
One week later
Natural gas shorts narrowed, and the S&P shorts held.
- Last week: would natural gas shorts keep growing? The net short stood at 144,681, at the short end of its range.
- This week: they narrowed. Managed money held 9,592 fewer shorts and added 8,933 longs, so the net short narrowed by 18,525 to 126,156. It sits at the 7th percentile (z-score -1.31), still the short end.
- The S&P gross shorts stayed above 530,569. Leveraged funds' gross shorts rose by 1,147 to 531,716.
- The yen short widened again. Leveraged funds' net short widened by 8,630 to 33,673.
- Copper's net long barely moved. Managed money's net long fell by 295 to 61,170.
- Next report: Whether the euro net short grows beyond 68,001, and whether natural gas shorts narrow further from 126,156.
Positioning reference
Where positioning sits in its 3-year range.
| Market | Net position | 3-year percentile (z-score) | At this end |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sugar No. 11 | Net long 261,841 (17.3% of open interest) | 100th (+2.29) | 9 reports |
| Gasoline (RBOB) | Net long 97,646 (28.6% of open interest) | 99th (+1.96) | 9 reports |
| Bitcoin (CME) | Net short 5,844 (28.2% of open interest) | 99th (+1.71) | 3 reports |
| Euro FX | Net short 68,001 (7.8% of open interest) | 1st (-2.54) | 3 reports |
| Lean Hogs | Net short 42,088 (9.8% of open interest) | 1st (-1.86) | 20 reports |
| Coffee C | Net long 10,267 (5.1% of open interest) | 3rd (-1.72) | 5 reports |
| Soybeans | Net long 237,491 (17.9% of open interest) | 96th (+1.81) | 8 reports |
| Silver | Net long 5,735 (4.6% of open interest) | 6th (-1.34) | 2 reports |