The read
The Nasdaq-100 short moved off the edge, but crowding did not disappear. Leveraged funds covered 29,018 Nasdaq-100 contracts, reducing the net short to 67,709, or 21.3% of open interest. The standardized reading rose from -2.08 to -1.04, and the regime moved from Extreme Short to Accumulating. The Mexican peso also stepped back from Extreme Long after 10,952 contracts of selling. Sugar pushed the other way: managed money added 92,359 contracts, taking its standardized reading to +4.23, the most stretched reading in the release. Twelve markets changed regime, the Dow Jones produced the only new alert, and there were no new divergences.
The anchors
ES · CL · GC
ES
Net short 289,435 contracts, or 13.8% of open interest · z +1.82 · COT Index 69 · 1-week flow -2,930 · 4-week flow +39,879Leveraged funds sold 2,930 contracts, taking the net short to 289,435. The standardized reading eased from +1.95 to +1.82, while the four-week flow remains positive at +39,879. The regime moved from Building Long to Neutral. That label describes the position against its own history; leveraged funds remain net short.
CL
Net long 104,035 contracts, or 4.2% of open interest · z +0.61 · COT Index 39 · 1-week flow +320 · 4-week flow +17,130Managed money added just 320 contracts, leaving WTI net long 104,035. The standardized reading slipped from +0.63 to +0.61, the COT Index is 39 and the regime stayed Neutral. The oil anchor was almost unchanged while the crowded positions elsewhere moved sharply.
GC
Net long 145,922 contracts, or 26.0% of open interest · z +1.35 · COT Index 60 · 1-week flow +4,054 · 4-week flow +22,336Managed money added 4,054 contracts, lifting the net long to 145,922 and the standardized reading from +1.17 to +1.35. The four-week flow reached +22,336, but the regime stayed Neutral. Gold strengthened without becoming an extreme.
The turn
The positions behind this week's read
The move this week
Two crowded trades backed away.
Leveraged funds covered 29,018 Nasdaq-100 contracts, taking the position to 67,709 net short. The short still equals 21.3% of open interest, but the standardized reading moved a full step toward the middle, from -2.08 to -1.04. The COT Index is 28, the four-week flow reached +22,878 and the regime moved from Extreme Short to Accumulating.
The Mexican peso unwound from the other side. Leveraged funds sold 10,952 contracts, reducing the net long to 65,330, or 23.0% of open interest. Its standardized reading fell from +2.14 to +1.21, and the regime moved from Extreme Long to Building Long. The four-week flow remains positive at +10,867, so the latest week trimmed a crowded long rather than erasing the longer move.
Four things that moved
The changes behind the headline.
Nasdaq-100
The largest reading change in the release. Leveraged funds covered 29,018 contracts, reducing the net short to 67,709 and lifting the standardized reading from -2.08 to -1.04. The COT Index is 28 and the regime moved from Extreme Short to Accumulating.
Mexican Peso
Leveraged funds sold 10,952 contracts, trimming the net long to 65,330. The standardized reading fell from +2.14 to +1.21, the COT Index is 82 and the regime stepped down from Extreme Long to Building Long.
Sugar No. 11
The main extension against the week's unwinds. Managed money added 92,359 contracts, taking the net long to 151,349 and the standardized reading from +3.66 to +4.23. The COT Index is 86, the four-week flow is +247,945 and the regime remains Extreme Long.
Japanese Yen
Leveraged funds sold 14,901 contracts, taking the net short to 67,971. The standardized reading moved from +0.58 to -0.12 and the regime shifted from Neutral to Flip Zone. The four-week flow is still positive at +28,214.
Positioning extremes
Where the crowd is stretched.
Who is on the other side
Asset managers hold the long side.
- Asset managers+69,026
- Nonreportables+18,044
- Other reportables+5,721
- Dealers-25,083
- Leveraged funds-67,709
The Nasdaq-100 book remains divided by participant type. Leveraged funds hold the visible 67,709 net short, with dealers also 25,083 net short. Asset managers hold the largest offsetting long at 69,026 contracts, joined by nonreportables at 18,044 and other reportables at 5,721.
This week's covering reduced the leveraged-fund short without changing the current shape of the split. Asset managers carry most of the long side, while dealers reinforce the short side alongside leveraged funds.
The pressure point
The crowding moved, not vanished.
Nasdaq-100 and the Mexican peso moved inward, but sugar extended in the opposite direction. Managed money added 92,359 contracts, taking the net long to 151,349 and the standardized reading from +3.66 to +4.23. The four-week flow reached +247,945, the COT Index is 86 and the regime remained Extreme Long.
Soybeans also added 50,300 contracts, lifting the net long to 151,662 and the standardized reading from -0.14 to +0.43, though the regime stayed Flip Zone. The Dow Jones produced the week's only new alert at +1.93, while the S&P 500 moved from Building Long to Neutral at +1.82. Twelve markets changed regime, but the release carried no new divergences.
One week later
How last week's extremes are tracking.
- Sugar stretched further. Managed money added 92,359 contracts, lifting the net long to 151,349 and the standardized reading from +3.66 to +4.23. The four-week flow reached +247,945 and the regime remained Extreme Long.
- The Nasdaq short left the edge. Leveraged funds covered 29,018 contracts, reducing the net short to 67,709. The standardized reading improved from -2.08 to -1.04, the COT Index is 28 and the regime moved from Extreme Short to Accumulating.
- Euro FX eased, but stayed extreme. Leveraged funds covered 2,884 contracts, taking the net short to 57,716. The standardized reading improved from -2.31 to -2.08, but the COT Index is 6 and the regime remains Extreme Short.
- Live cattle barely moved. Managed money reduced the net long by 3,148 contracts, to 61,514. The standardized reading changed from -2.46 to -2.42 and the regime remained Extreme Short.
- The Canadian dollar kept accumulating. Leveraged funds covered 3,108 contracts, reducing the net short to 88,897. The standardized reading improved from -1.75 to -1.53, the COT Index is 12 and the regime remained Accumulating.
- The front-end short kept unwinding. Leveraged funds covered 28,923 SOFR contracts, reducing the net short to 2,530,893. The standardized reading improved from -1.71 to -1.59, the four-week flow reached +163,281 and the regime moved from Neutral to Accumulating.