The read
The Canadian dollar short took the largest step toward the middle. Leveraged funds covered 16,805 Canadian dollar contracts, reducing the net short to 72,092, or 21.9% of open interest. The standardized reading rose from -1.53 to -0.62, and the regime moved from Accumulating to Building Short. Natural gas covering was the next-largest reading change, while Nasdaq-100 covering continued last week's unwind into Flip Zone. Corn pushed the other way: managed money added 126,008 contracts, taking its standardized reading to +2.19 and the COT Index to 100 as the regime entered Extreme Long. Sugar remains the most stretched book at +4.07. Twenty-four markets changed regime. Gold, corn and the British pound produced new alerts, and the release flagged five new bearish divergences.
The anchors
ES · CL · GC
ES
Net short 328,532 contracts, or 15.8% of open interest · z +1.13 · COT Index 58 · 1-week flow -39,097 · 4-week flow -26,160Leveraged funds sold 39,097 contracts, taking the net short to 328,532. The standardized reading fell from +1.82 to +1.13, the four-week flow turned negative at -26,160, and the regime moved from Neutral to Distributing. That label describes the position against its own history; leveraged funds remain net short.
CL
Net long 104,573 contracts, or 4.2% of open interest · z +0.60 · COT Index 39 · 1-week flow +538 · 4-week flow -3,734Managed money added just 538 contracts, leaving WTI net long 104,573. The standardized reading slipped from +0.61 to +0.60, the COT Index is 39 and the regime stayed Neutral. The oil anchor was almost unchanged while the crowded grain and currency books moved.
GC
Net long 151,315 contracts, or 23.5% of open interest · z +1.59 · COT Index 62 · 1-week flow +5,393 · 4-week flow +30,987Managed money added 5,393 contracts, lifting the net long to 151,315 and the standardized reading from +1.35 to +1.59. The four-week flow reached +30,987, the regime moved from Neutral to Building Long, and gold produced one of the week's three new alerts.
The turn
The positions behind this week's read
The move this week
The Canadian dollar short unwound.
Leveraged funds covered 16,805 Canadian dollar contracts, taking the position to 72,092 net short. The short still equals 21.9% of open interest, but the standardized reading moved the most of any market in the release, from -1.53 to -0.62. The COT Index is 27, the four-week flow reached +30,403 and the regime moved from Accumulating to Building Short. Leveraged funds remain net short.
Natural gas covering was the next-largest reading change. Managed money covered 28,404 contracts, reducing the net short to 71,496, or 4.1% of open interest. The standardized reading rose from -0.84 to +0.02, and the regime moved from Neutral to Flip Zone. The four-week flow is +34,109, so the latest week extended a covering move rather than starting one.
Four things that moved
The changes behind the headline.
Canadian Dollar
The largest reading change in the release. Leveraged funds covered 16,805 contracts, reducing the net short to 72,092 and lifting the standardized reading from -1.53 to -0.62. The COT Index is 27 and the regime moved from Accumulating to Building Short.
Natural Gas
Managed money covered 28,404 contracts, reducing the net short to 71,496. The standardized reading rose from -0.84 to +0.02, the COT Index is 33 and the regime moved from Neutral to Flip Zone.
Corn
The main extension against the week's covering. Managed money added 126,008 contracts, taking the net long to 376,513 and the standardized reading from +1.46 to +2.19. The COT Index reached 100, the four-week flow is +208,114 and the regime moved from Building Long to Extreme Long.
Nasdaq-100
Last week's unwind continued. Leveraged funds covered 23,393 contracts, reducing the net short to 44,316. The standardized reading rose from -1.04 to -0.22, the COT Index is 48 and the regime moved from Accumulating to Flip Zone.
Positioning extremes
Where the crowd is stretched.
Who is on the other side
Dealers hold the long side.
- Dealers+124,930
- Other reportables+7,814
- Nonreportables-1,709
- Asset managers-58,943
- Leveraged funds-72,092
The Canadian dollar book remains divided by participant type. Leveraged funds hold the visible 72,092 net short, with asset managers also 58,943 net short and nonreportables 1,709 net short. Dealers hold the offsetting long at 124,930 contracts, joined by other reportables at 7,814.
This week's covering reduced the leveraged-fund short without changing the current shape of the split. Dealers carry the long side, while asset managers reinforce the short side alongside leveraged funds.
The pressure point
The crowded longs stacked.
Canadian dollar and natural gas covering did not empty the extremes. Managed money added 126,008 corn contracts, taking the net long to 376,513 and the standardized reading from +1.46 to +2.19. The COT Index reached 100 and the regime moved to Extreme Long. Sugar added 55,733 contracts, taking the net long to 207,082. Its standardized reading eased from +4.23 to +4.07, but the COT Index is 99 and the regime remained Extreme Long.
The S&P 500 moved the other way. Leveraged funds sold 39,097 contracts, taking the net short to 328,532 and the standardized reading from +1.82 to +1.13 as the regime shifted from Neutral to Distributing. Twenty-four markets changed regime. Gold, corn and the British pound produced new alerts, and the release carried five new bearish divergences.
One week later
How last week's extremes are tracking.
- Sugar added size, but the reading eased. Managed money added 55,733 contracts, taking the net long to 207,082. The standardized reading slipped from +4.23 to +4.07, the COT Index is 99 and the regime remained Extreme Long.
- The Nasdaq short kept covering. Leveraged funds covered 23,393 contracts, reducing the net short to 44,316. The standardized reading improved from -1.04 to -0.22, the COT Index is 48 and the regime moved from Accumulating to Flip Zone.
- Euro FX left Extreme Short. Leveraged funds covered 19,357 contracts. The standardized reading improved from -2.08 to -1.41, and the regime moved from Extreme Short to Accumulating. The release also flagged a new bearish divergence.
- Live cattle did not budge. Managed money reduced the net long by 4,073 contracts, to 57,441. The standardized reading stayed at -2.42, the COT Index is 31 and the regime remained Extreme Short.
- The Canadian dollar covering accelerated. Leveraged funds covered 16,805 contracts, reducing the net short to 72,092. The standardized reading improved from -1.53 to -0.62, the COT Index is 27 and the regime moved from Accumulating to Building Short.
- The front-end short reversed. Leveraged funds sold 65,972 SOFR contracts, taking the net short to 2,596,865. The standardized reading moved from -1.59 to -1.60, the four-week flow reversed to -150,927 and the regime moved from Accumulating to Building Short.